The biggest IPO ever is officially opening today. Buy or don’t buy — one decision could make you regret it for ten years.
Okay, let’s get straight to it.
Today is June 12, 2026. On this day, SpaceX officially lists on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, priced at $135 per share, with an overall valuation of $1.77 trillion.
$1.77 trillion.
Let me put that in perspective. It’s already bigger than Tesla and instantly lands among the top seven companies in the U.S. by market cap. It’s valued higher than Saudi Aramco was at its IPO. This is the largest IPO in history — period.
This isn’t science fiction. This is happening today.
And if you open your phone or computer, you’re flooded with ads, articles, and analysts shouting: buy, buy now, don’t miss SpaceX like you missed Apple.
But what I want to tell you today is this: before you spend money, you need to understand a few things first. There are things here most people haven’t really looked at carefully.
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Alright, let’s break it down.
What kind of company is SpaceX?
Many people think SpaceX is just a rocket maker — Elon Musk’s space dream, very romantic.
But if you actually read the S-1 filed with the SEC, you’ll see that the company going public today is already a very complex hybrid.
It’s not one company. It’s three companies fused together.
The first piece is Space — the launch business, including Falcon 9, Dragon, and the Starship super-rocket still under testing.
The second piece is Connectivity — the Starlink you may have seen in ads, using satellites orbiting Earth to give broadband access almost anywhere.
The third piece is AI — xAI, which merged into SpaceX in February 2026. That includes the Grok chatbot and even the social platform X, formerly Twitter, which Musk bought for $44 billion in 2022.
Rockets, satellite broadband, artificial intelligence, and social media — all packaged together and listed at once.
Doesn’t that feel a little strange?
Try finding another listed company in the world that you can compare it to. You can’t.
That’s the key. No comparable peer means no one can value it precisely. And when a company can’t be valued precisely, its stock price depends entirely on the narrative, the mood, and whatever Musk says in his next post.
That’s a risk — but let’s not rush. Let’s look at the numbers.
Numbers can talk — and also lie
According to SpaceX’s official filing, full-year 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion, up 33% from $14.1 billion in 2024.
Sounds great. Fast growth.
But here’s the problem.
Net loss: $4.9 billion.
A $4.9 billion annual loss against a $1.77 trillion valuation.
Yes, I know what you’ll say: losses are normal for tech companies early on, Amazon lost money for years too. True — but you need to look at the structure of the loss: where it comes from, why it’s happening, and whether it’s shrinking or widening.
Let’s break the three businesses down.
First, Connectivity, meaning Starlink.
2025 revenue was $11.4 billion, up nearly 50% year over year. Operating profit was $4.4 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 63%.
This is the only business inside SpaceX that is truly making money right now. And it’s doing very well — subscribers grew from 4.6 million at the end of 2024 to more than 9 million by the end of 2025, and passed 10.3 million by Q1 2026, covering 164 countries and regions.
Think of it as the satellite version of Netflix: buy a dish, pay monthly, and get internet access from almost anywhere on Earth, including ships at sea, planes in the sky, and the African savanna.
This is SpaceX’s real moat and real cash cow.
Second, Space — the traditional rocket launch business.
2025 revenue was $4.1 billion, with an operating loss of $657 million.
Rocket launches are expensive. Starship development has already burned more than $15 billion, and the spending isn’t over. This business is both SpaceX’s brand symbol and one of its biggest capital sinks.
Third, AI, meaning xAI.
2025 revenue was $3.2 billion, but operating losses reached $6.35 billion.
Yes, you read that right. $3.2 billion in revenue, $6.35 billion in losses — more than two dollars lost for every dollar earned.
That’s because xAI is aggressively building AI data centers and buying chips to expand compute infrastructure. This is what is dragging down the whole company and is the main reason SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss.
So what does the real picture look like?
Starlink is desperately making money and then using that money to subsidize xAI’s burn.
Starlink is the gold mine; xAI is the bottomless pit. And that pit keeps getting bigger.
Is the $1.77 trillion valuation reasonable?
Now let’s get to the most important question — and the part that makes me frown the most.
A $1.77 trillion valuation against $18.7 billion in annual revenue, with negative net income.
What does that mean? It means investors are willing to pay almost $95 for every $1 of SpaceX revenue.
That ratio is called price-to-sales, or P/S.
Here are a few comparisons.
NVIDIA, the world’s most important AI chip company, made more than $70 billion in profit in 2025 and trades at roughly 20 times sales.
Palantir, the highest P/S name in the S&P 500, trades at about 65 times sales.
CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity leader, is around 39 times.
SpaceX is near 95 times sales.
And SpaceX is still losing money.
No S&P 500 company in a loss-making state has ever reached this level of sales multiple.
You may ask: what about the future? SpaceX says its total addressable market is 285 trillion yuan, or about $28.5 trillion. Of that, the AI segment alone is supposedly $26.5 trillion.
That number is bigger than global healthcare, food and beverages, and the entire auto industry combined.
But here’s the huge problem — SpaceX’s current AI revenue is only $3.2 billion, and it’s still losing money. How exactly does it become a major player in a $26.5 trillion market? What’s the path? What’s the timeline? Nobody can explain that clearly.
What you’re buying now is not a company that is already making money. You’re buying a story about the future — a very big, very attractive, but also very vague story.
A recent Morningstar report argues that SpaceX’s fair value should be around $780 billion — less than half of today’s asking price. Their suggestion: wait after the IPO, let the market cool down, and you may get a better entry.
What does history say about IPOs?
I know a lot of people are feeling FOMO right now — afraid of missing out, worried the rocket will already be gone by the time they board.
Let’s look at history.
Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida, has studied IPOs for decades. What does his data tell us?
IPO stocks rise about 30% on average on the first day of trading, based on data from 2020 to now. So yes, some people do make money on day one.
But what happens afterward?
Over the next three years, IPO stocks underperform already-listed peers in the same industry by an average of 27 percentage points.
Over five years, buying IPOs on average does worse than simply buying the broad market index fund.
Do you think that’s a pattern, or a coincidence?
Amazon — a great company — fell more than 90% from its post-IPO peak and gave investors countless chances to buy cheaply.
Meta, formerly Facebook, fell more than 50% below its IPO price before starting its real long bull run.
Microsoft took many years to reward early IPO buyers with satisfying returns.
Peter Lynch once said: great companies always give you multiple chances to buy; there’s no need to rush into the IPO day itself.
Now answer this: is SpaceX a better company, or a better company than Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft?
If it’s a better company, historical patterns may not apply.
If it isn’t, then you need to take that pattern seriously.
You think not buying will let you avoid it? Wrong
Okay, maybe after all this you’ve decided not to buy SpaceX at the IPO.
But I need to tell you something subtle: you may not be able to avoid it at all.
Nasdaq is already moving quickly to add SpaceX to the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100. MSCI also confirmed on June 8 that it will treat SpaceX according to existing rules.
What does that mean? If you own Nasdaq index funds or global equity index funds, those funds will automatically buy SpaceX shares in a relatively short time and give you indirect exposure.
This is not a choice. It’s a rule.
So in a sense, the question isn’t whether you’ll hold SpaceX — it’s whether you want to buy it actively or hold it passively.
It’s worth noting that this IPO only released about 5% of shares to the public market; most of the equity still sits inside. And Musk himself may not own the majority of shares, but he holds more than 80% of the voting power. That means every major decision is effectively controlled by one person.
Among the world’s biggest tech companies, that control structure is extremely rare.
That’s not necessarily bad — Musk has truly done things others couldn’t. But it does mean that when you buy SpaceX, you’re largely betting on Musk as a person: his judgment, his execution, and his ability to stay focused and avoid mistakes over the next 20 years.
What do I think?
Let me share my personal view, but please remember: I’m not your financial advisor. Nothing here is investment advice. You are responsible for your own money.
I’m a passive investor. I buy total-market index funds, hold them long term, and keep them in retirement or tax-advantaged accounts to compound slowly. It sounds boring, but decades of data tell me that most active stock pickers eventually fail to beat the index.
That also means that whether I like SpaceX or not, I’ll soon own it indirectly through index funds. I don’t get to choose.
But if you ask whether I would actively buy SpaceX on IPO day, the answer is no.
Here’s why.
First, the valuation is too high. A 95x sales multiple for a loss-making company is almost unprecedented in history.
Second, the loss structure is worsening. xAI lost $6.35 billion in 2025, and capex jumped from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $20.7 billion in 2025 and is still expanding. Starlink’s profits aren’t enough to cover that bottomless pit.
Third, the key business still depends on future promises. In the $26.5 trillion AI market, SpaceX currently has only $3.2 billion in revenue and is still losing money. That’s a very distant future, with too many variables in between.
Fourth, Musk’s execution is strong, but delivery dates often slip. Tesla’s full self-driving promise began in 2016 and is still underway. Starship development has already cost more than $15 billion, above the original budget, and it still hasn’t finished all objectives.
Fifth, the IPO timing itself is a signal. Banks, early employees, and original shareholders are choosing to sell now, not buy. Their incentives point in the opposite direction from yours.
So this is speculation, not investing.
Traders may love SpaceX for its volatility — long, short, options, that’s their battlefield.
But for ordinary long-term investors, jumping in at this moment with this valuation is too expensive, too risky, and historically you’re almost certain to get a cheaper entry later.
Final summary
Let me sum up today’s core points and give you a clear framework.
SpaceX’s one true highlight is Starlink. The satellite broadband business has 10.3 million users, $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and nearly 50% annual growth. That’s the real moat and real competitive edge.
Two parts are dragging it down. One is the rocket launch business, still burning cash on Starship R&D and not profitable in the near term. The other is xAI, which lost $6.35 billion in 2025 and is still widening its losses.
Combined, the company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and is listing at a $1.77 trillion valuation.
On valuation, outside firms like Morningstar see fair value around $780 billion — roughly half the IPO price.
History tells us IPOs can pop on day one, but over the next three to five years, IPO buyers usually underperform the market.
If you don’t buy it directly, you’ll still likely end up owning SpaceX passively through Nasdaq index funds. That’s unavoidable.
Musk controls more than 80% of the voting power, so this company is effectively controlled by one person.
My personal view: wait and watch. If you’re really interested, let the IPO excitement cool down, let the financials become clearer, and wait for a more reasonable entry point before deciding.
History never stops because of your FOMO. Great companies always give you a second chance.
That’s all for today.
If this video helped you think more clearly, please hit like. That matters a lot to me because it helps more people see this content. If your friends are debating whether to buy SpaceX, share this video with them so they can avoid some detours. Save it, because SpaceX’s story is only just beginning and there will be many more developments worth watching. This video can serve as your reference point.
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Tell me in the comments: are you buying or waiting?
See you next time.
